A new Stanford study has delivered sobering clarity on how generative AI is shaking up the job market—but it’s not the sweeping job loss narrative many expected. Here’s what emerging data reveal and why the biggest shifts are happening—not to entire industries—but to early-career workers.
Key Takeaways from the Stanford Findings
1. Entry-Level Workers Are Most at Risk
Researchers analyzed anonymized payroll data from ADP, spanning late 2022 through mid-2025. They found that employment among 22–25-year-olds in AI-vulnerable areas—like software development and customer service—dropped up to 16%. Meanwhile, older counterparts in the same industries remain relatively stable.
2. Automation Doesn’t Hurt Everyone Equally
These declines are most severe in roles where AI replaces repetitive tasks. Jobs where AI augments human work—such as in healthcare or operations—actually saw growth in entry-level positions.
3. This Isn’t a Wage Depression
Despite shifting headcounts, wages haven’t dropped. That suggests AI isn’t devaluing work—it’s changing how, when, and where new workers enter professional tracks.
Why This Matters for the Workforce
- Interrupted Career Journeys
Missing entry points can weaken skill pipelines. If young workers don’t build hands-on experience now, addressing future leadership and skill gaps may become difficult. - Rethinking Onboarding & Training
Experts propose reevaluating how we train new professionals—by intentionally blending AI augmentation and personalized mentoring. - Shifting Toward AI-Augmented Roles
Research reveals that workers across many occupations clearly prefer AI that complements their work—not replaces it—especially in roles where nuance, judgment, and empathy matter.
Frequently Asked Questions
| Q | A |
|---|---|
| Which age group faces AI disruption most? | Workers aged 22–25, especially in software development and customer service, experienced the steepest employment drops. |
| Are older workers also losing jobs? | No—more experienced employees often maintain or even increase their roles, supported by nuanced, hard-to-automate skills. |
| Are wages falling too? | Interestingly, no. Despite fewer entry-level jobs, pay standards remain intact—suggesting value persists where roles still exist. |
| Could AI also help employment? | Yes—in jobs where AI augments human activity, young worker participation has grown. |
| What should industries do? | Focus on augmentation, not replacement. Build training paths, mentorship, and “centaur” models that pair AI with human guidance. |
Final Thoughts
AI’s disruption isn’t sweeping across all job tiers—it’s carving out a targeted effect on early-career roles. The worry isn’t just displaced jobs—it’s the future competence gap in crucial tech roles. If businesses and policymakers act now—with reskilling programs, inclusive AI design, and thoughtful training—the next generation can evolve into AI-enhanced professionals, not casualties of automation.
Sources TIME
